Sunday, October 19, 2008


...but no reason to become complacent...

The economics of reporting polls
October 17th, 2008, 11:49am by Sam Wang

The only thing happening in the Meta-Analysis is a slight, slow widening of Obama’s lead. Some of you want to know about individual polls, such as a recent Gallup national poll showing Obama ahead by only +2% (standard likely-voter model) or +6% (high-turnout model). I confess that I tend to ignore individual polls because of the statistical variability. So it didn’t occur to me to care about this particular data point. Obama is still crushing McCain, period.

But there is a lesson to be learned here: It is not in the interest of individual pollsters or media organizations for you to have the most accurate possible picture of the horserace. Here is why.

Read the rest here.

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